If GOP Captures the House, Frelinghuysen and Garrett Become Major National Players

By Alan Steinberg | August 23rd, 2010 - 1:08pm

From now until Election Day, 2010, I will be focusing my columns on the United States Senate and House of Representatives races, both inside and outside New Jersey.  In analyzing the races, I will rely primarily on two tools: 1) the RealClearPolitics.com website; and 2) the Intrade prediction markets.


The RealClearPolitics.com website averages all recent polls to arrive at its own poll estimate in any particular contest.  The site currently shows the Republicans ahead in 203 House races, with the Democrats leading in 199.  There are 33 toss-up House races, of which 32 are in districts with a Democratic incumbent, one with a Republican.  In order to win control of the House, the Republicans have to win 15 toss-up races.  Given the fact that RealClearPolitics currently shows the Republicans maintaining a 6 point lead nationwide in generic Congressional balloting, it is safe to say that the GOP has an outstanding chance of capturing at least the necessary 15 seats, thereby gaining control of the House for the first time since 2007.


The Intrade market confirms this today by rating the GOP with a 73% chance of capturing the House.  It is beyond the scope of this article to explain how the Intrade political prediction market works, but suffice it to say that the Intrade market has often been a more reliable predictor of elections than the various polls.  The people who buy future prediction contracts on this market are usually very sophisticated investors who often seem to have more “inside knowledge” than even the most prominent national pundits.


A Republican takeover of the House of Representatives will have special significance for New Jersey.  Specifically, it will almost certainly mean that Representatives Rodney Frelinghuysen (R- NJ 11th) and Scott Garrett (R- NJ 5th) will become major national players.


Frelinghuysen is currently serving as the ranking Republican member on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development.  Garrett serves as the ranking Republican member on the Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises.  These are two of the most significant subcommittees in the House of Representatives.  Both these Representatives will doubtless become chairs of these subcommittees in the event of a Republican takeover of the House.  Once again, Frelinghuysen will become a House “Cardinal” – a chair of an Appropriations Subcommittee.


Even more significantly, if the Republicans retain control of the House in the 2012 elections, both Frelinghuysen and Garrett have a realistic chance of becoming chairs of the Appropriations Committee and Financial Services Committee, respectively.  This would give the New Jersey Congressional delegation power over critical national issues which it has not enjoyed for some time.


I have maintained close personal and working relationships with both Rodney Frelinghuysen and Scott Garrett for nearly two decades, as far back as when both were serving in the New Jersey Assembly.  It gives me a special sense of pride to see both these gentlemen become major players on the national stage.


Rodney Frelinghuysen served as chair of the Assembly Appropriations Committee after the Republicans captured veto-proof majorities in both the state Assembly and Senate in the 1991 elections.  His superb knowledge of state government and finances, together with his close cooperation with the then Assembly Speaker Chuck Haytaian and Senate Budget Committee Chair Robert Littell resulted in the passage of a budget for FY1993 that reduced the proposed spending plan of then Governor Jim Florio by over $1.1 billion and the sales tax by one percent.  As Senior Policy Advisor to Speaker Haytaian, I worked closely with Rodney in crafting the FY 1994 education budget.  I found that Rodney’s intellect and warm, collegial personality made him a pleasure to work with.


After being elected to the House of Representatives, Rodney found a natural home on the House Appropriations Committee.  During my service as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA in the second term of President George W. Bush, I had the good fortune to work closely with Rodney once again.  He monitored closely the process of Superfund remediations within his district and displayed an admirable concern for environmental issues of national concern as well.  It gave me much pleasure to witness the enormous respect given to Rodney by members on both sides of the political aisle.


As for Scott Garrett, it is fair to say that he is perhaps the most underrated person in New Jersey politics over the last three decades.  As a Congressman, he has been a true profile in courage in opposing the wasteful bailouts that were enacted after the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008.  His focused, sharp criticism of the Dodd- Frank financial "reform" legislation gave him national publicity and won him plaudits from leading players in the political, academic, and financial worlds.


Since his first election to the House in 2002, every two years one hears talk of a Democratic candidate or an insurgent Republican defeating Scott for reelection.  That talk has now ended for good.  Scott keeps winning reelection by overwhelming margins.  He is the most popular “movement” conservative in New Jersey, and any effort to deprive him of reelection by placing him in a district with another House member will fail totally.


Congressman Garrett has also become a prodigious fundraiser as well.  Having raised more than $1.2 million for this cycle, he has vaulted to the front of the pack, becoming the strongest fundraiser in New Jersey’s Republican Congressional delegation.  Since he will only have to spend a fraction of that amount on this year’s race, he will be in an unbeatable position in the 2012 election as well.


On Election Night 2010, you will here national news commentators talk about the roles that the new Republican Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor will play in the next House of Representatives.  In forging their agenda, Boehner and Cantor will doubtless find themselves working closely with Rodney Frelinghuysen and Scott Garrett.  That will be a major plus for New Jersey's influence on the national scene.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and seven federally recognized Indian nations.

Christie for Vice-President in 2012? It Could Very Well Happen

By Alan Steinberg

Governor Chris Christie is now the national media rock star for political conservatives and Republicans in general.  He is to the Morning Joe show on MSNBC what the Beatles were to the Ed Sullivan Show in the 1960s.  His appearances on the NBC Today Show and ABC This Week have received national acclaim.  He now graces the cover of National Review.  Peggy Noonan extols him in the Wall Street Journal.  Time and Newsweek, I am sure, will have cover stories in the near future about “the Christie Phenomenon”.

The favorable media has sparked growing talk of a Christie for President candidacy in 2012.  It is almost impossible, however, for a first term governor of any state to devote the time and effort necessary for a full-fledged successful candidacy for the Presidency.  Ronald Reagan learned this in 1968 when his convention week candidacy for the Republican nomination failed to stop Richard Nixon, the GOP nominee at that year’s Miami Beach Republican National Convention.

Furthermore, Christie has made it very clear that he has no intention whatsoever of seeking the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.  He forthrightly says that he is not ready for such an effort.   As for the vice-presidential nomination, Christie has disclaimed any interest whatsoever by humorously responding, “Can you imagine me being number two to anybody?”

Whether you love or hate Chris Christie, you have to accept the fact that he says what he means and means what he says.  Accordingly, there can be no doubt regarding his absence of national ticket aspirations, at least for the present.

I have no doubt, however, that if Chris Christie’s New Jersey poll approval ratings are above fifty percent when the Republicans gather for their national convention in Tampa, Florida on August 27, 2012, he will be at or near the top of the Republican presidential candidate's“short short list” for the vice presidential nomination.  By “short short list”, I mean the Republican presidential nominee’s top three preferences.

If indeed Christie is on the 2012 Republican presidential nominee’s vice presidential “short short list”, this will be the first time a New Jersey governor achieved this status since former Governor Richard J. Hughes was a finalist in Hubert Humphrey’s vice presidential nominee designation in 1968, the other two contenders being Edmund S. Muskie, the eventual vice presidential nominee, and former Senator Fred Harris of Oklahoma. 

During their administrations, both former Governors Tom Kean and Christie Whitman were often the subject of media speculation as possible vice presidential candidates.  Both would have been excellent nominees, and if necessary could have served competently as President. 

Neither Kean nor Whitman, however, ever made the “short short list” of a presidential nominee, since they were both pro-choice on the abortion issue.  For better or worse, an anti-abortion position has been a litmus test for a Republican presidential or vice presidential nominee since 1980.  Chris Christie has been consistently pro-life, and therefore, there is absolutely no litmus test bar to his selection as a Republican vice presidential nominee. 

Chris Christie will never seek the Republican vice presidential nomination in 2012.  The nomination, however, may well seek him. There are two compelling reasons for this, aside from the possibility of the Republican presidential ticket capturing the 14 electoral votes of New Jersey, a state which no Republican Presidential candidate has won since George H.W. Bush did so in 1988.

First, Christie has a remarkable appeal to Reagan Democrats, as demonstrated by his success in carrying Democratic Middlesex and Gloucester Counties in the 2009 gubernatorial election.  In the 2012 election, recapturing the Reagan Democrats will be the key to Republican hopes of capturing Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes for the first time since 1988.  Christie’s Reagan Democrat appeal will be a huge asset in this regard.

The second reason is a factor I have only become aware of recently:  Christie, born in 1962, also has a unique appeal to what I call the “post-baby boomer generation” born after 1960.  While I have not seen this evidenced by any poll, I have developed this perception based on my discussions with people I meet inside and outside New Jersey day to day.

Christie’s victory over baby boomer generation Jon Corzine truly marked a generational shift in New Jersey politics, just as the victory of Barack Obama (born in 1961) in the 2008 Presidential election marked the triumph of the post-baby boomers at the national level.  The post-baby boomer generation is, by and large, focused on the values of hard work, family, and faith.

Indeed, Barack Obama was at one time the symbol of hope to the post-baby boomers.  The President, however, has lost this position of symbolic leadership, perhaps irretrievably, due to a worsening economy and an incoherent foreign policy.  Chris Christie’s national media appearances have made him an avatar of the hopes and aspirations of the post-baby boomer generation. 

In addition to these two political assets, Christie has other attributes that would be much valued by the individual potential Republican presidential nominees.

For Mitt Romney and Mitch Daniels, Christie’s vice presidential nomination in itself would be most reassuring to conservatives uneasy about Romney’s health care legislation in Massachusetts and the comment of Daniels that the next president "would have to call a truce on the so-called social issues."  Christie’s record on both social and economic issues in New Jersey is remarkably conservative, especially for a “blue”, liberal Democratic state. 

Incidentally, Christie and Romney share a mutual close friend in New Jersey state Senator Joe Kyrillos.  With regard to Mitch Daniels, as noted by National Review commentator Rich Lowry, these two governors of Indiana and New Jersey, respectively are remarkably in tune in terms of message and small government philosophy.

For southerners Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour, Christie would provide a much needed geographic balance.  Barbour is already well acquainted with Christie’s political assets from his experience as chair of the Republican Governors Association, which strongly supported Christie in the 2009 campaign.

For low key Tim Pawlenty, Christie’s powerful yet entertaining personality would serve as a nice personal balance.  The New Jersey governor would provide much needed gravitas to a ticket headed by Sarah Palin.  John Thune would greatly benefit from Christie’s success with the national media.

Accordingly, as said above, I have no doubt that if Christie has over 50 percent approval ratings in New Jersey polls at the time of the 2012 Republican National Convention, he will be most seriously considered for the vice presidential nomination.  The question is whether Christie would accept it.  I am not an intimate of his, and I cannot answer that question.

Yet there is no question that all the current talk about Christie being nominated for President or Vice President is certainly good for New Jersey.

The past decade has been one where the national spotlight has often shone on New Jersey in a most unfavorable way.  Americans have viewed New Jersey as the state of the McGreevey scandal and exodus as governor in 2004 and the shame of Corruption Thursday in July, 2009.  We have been embarrassingly stereotyped by television shows such as The Sopranos and Jersey Shore. 

Thus, it is indeed a welcome change for New Jersey to be in the national spotlight due to the success and communication skills of a governor who is without scandal or any ethical taint.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and seven federally recognized Indian nations.

Hillary versus Barack in 2012?

By Alan Steinberg

Stop laughing.  I’m not predicting this, but it is within the realm of possibility.

President Barack Obama is a man whose political fortunes have imploded.  The national political rock star of 2008 has become the Democratic political albatross of 2010.  Democratic candidates in the 2010 gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, and House of Representatives elections are running away from him, not with him.

Obama’s approval rating reaches new lows every day, due to worsening economic conditions and a foreign policy of appeasement of hostile nations and downgrading of alliances with loyal friends.  On the two leading 2010 “values” controversies, to wit, the Arizona immigration law and the Cordoba Ground Zero mosque initiative, the President is definitely on the losing side of public opinion.

That is not the worst news for Barack Obama.  In August, 2011, his political fortunes and prospects may be far worse.

There are two looming political nightmares for the President.  First, a growing number of mainstream economists are predicting a severe recession in 2011.  Second, unless the tax reductions enacted during the administration of former President George W. Bush are extended beyond December 31, 2010, the American public will be subjected to the largest income tax hike in American history in 2011.

If either one of these two situations occur, Obama will be in far worse political shape than he is in today.  If in 2011 the American public experiences both a severe recession and a huge income tax hike, there is no way that the President will be reelected, regardless of who wins the Republican presidential nomination.  Any of the prospective GOP presidential nominees – Mitt Romney, Mitch Daniels, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, or John Thune – would easily defeat Barack Obama under such a scenario.

The key political question would then be whether Hillary Clinton would challenge Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination.  If Obama looks like a sure reelection loser, I suspect that many Democrats would actually favor Hillary mounting such a challenge.  She is the one Democrat who could possibly defeat any of the above mentioned GOP candidates if Obama’s reelection prospects become moribund.

The question then would be how could Hillary Clinton step down from her present position as Secretary of State and then seek the Democratic Presidential nomination against the incumbent President who appointed her.  A Clinton resignation from the position of Secretary of State would have to be based upon a fundamental disagreement with President Obama on a major foreign policy issue.

Such an issue might arise if Israel launches air strikes against Iran’s developing nuclear weapon facilities.

Obama is less supportive of Israel than any other President since the Declaration of Independence of the Jewish State in 1948.  If Israel launches such an attack, Obama will certainly condemn Israel’s actions and maybe even seek sanctions against the Jewish State.

By contrast, both Bill and Hillary Clinton have been far more supportive of Israel than Barack Obama.  Although they both have had disagreements with Likud Party leaders, they remain on very friendly terms with the major players in Israel’s Labor Party.  Obama is viewed negatively by an overwhelming majority of Israelis, right and left.

Furthermore, Hillary Clinton has been far more hawkish than Obama against the Iranian Ahmadinejad government.  If Obama were to repudiate an Israeli preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, there is a significant chance that this would lead to a Hillary Clinton resignation as Secretary of State.

If Hillary then defeated Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination, she would have at least an even money chance of defeating any of the above mentioned GOP Presidential candidates in the general election.  The failures of Barack Obama have not adversely affected the standing of Bill and Hillary Clinton with the American public.

As a long time New Jersey GOP stalwart, I have a shameful confession to make. I had a surprisingly good working relationship with the then Senator Hillary Clinton and her staff while I served as Region 2 EPA Regional Administrator during the second term of President George W. Bush.  I certainly would never support her for President, but if I had to have a Democratic President, I would far rather have her than a Barack Obama.

Hillary’s concern for the environment was genuine, and unlike Obama, she was willing to work closely with Republican members of the House of Representatives and the Senate to achieve bipartisan goals.  This was confirmed for me in a conversation I had with my closest friend in the New York State Republican Congressional delegation, the then Congressman Jim Walsh, who represented the Syracuse area.

Jim Walsh and I had similar experiences of bipartisan cooperation with Hillary Clinton.  This was in sharp contrast to our working experiences with the disgraced former Governor Eliot Spitzer, a political Sonny Liston, who was a vulgar, offensive and profane cowardly partisan bully, without ethical scruples.  Both of us had experienced ugly confrontations with the then New York governor – from which neither Jim nor I backed down.  Unlike Hillary, who was gracious and dignified, Eliot Spitzer gave new meaning to the term “political thug”. 

Another distinguishing feature of the then Senator Hillary Clinton was her Senate staff.  On the Democratic side of the aisle, she had the most competent staff of any Senator, with the exception of the late Senator Ted Kennedy’s Labor Committee staff.  Her record of Senate accomplishment stood in sharp contrast to that of the Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, who established a record of substantial nonachievement.

So in late 2007, I was certain that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States in 2008.  I had no doubt that she would have a campaign staff as competent as her Senatorial staff.  I felt that with the supreme political skills of both her husband Bill and herself, she would easily defeat Barack Obama.

I was therefore shocked by the incompetency of both her campaign and campaign staff.  I was even further surprised when she accepted Obama’s appointment of her as Secretary of State.

Had Hillary Clinton remained in the U.S. Senate, I am convinced that she could have eventually achieved the stature of the late Senator Ted Kennedy or an Orrin Hatch, senators respected on both sides of the political aisle for their ability to achieve bipartisan cooperation in pursuit of the public good.  Instead, she became the spokesperson for a failed foreign policy with which, I believe, she often disagrees.

If the opportunity to wrest the nomination from Barack Obama arises and the Clintons decide to take the political plunge, I am convinced that they would not make the same mistakes they made in the 2008 campaign.  The Clintons never make the same mistakes twice.

All the above is a matter of sheer speculation, I admit.  Perhaps Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid will find some way to extend the Bush tax cuts in a way to at least hold harmless middle class families.  Perhaps the economy will not deteriorate further in 2011.

If my above described possible scenario develops, however, and if Hillary runs against Barack in 2012, remember you read about the possibility of it here first.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and seven federally recognized Indian nations.